AI-ECG for One-Year Mortality Risk Prediction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide. While the electrocardiogram (ECG) is a standard, widely accessible tool for cardiovascular screening, traditional risk assessment models often rely heavily on blood test results, which may be unavailable in electronic health records (EHRs). To address this limitation, the Chang Gung ECG Mortality Risk Prediction Software, an artificial intelligence (AI)-based Software as a Medical Device (SaMD), was developed. The software analyzes standard 10-second, 12-lead resting ECG signals to predict the probability of cardiac-related mortality within one year. This study is a multicenter retrospective cohort study designed to validate the clinical performance of the AI software. Researchers will analyze retrospectively collected ECG data from patients aged 20 years or older with suspected cardiovascular disease across three hospitals in Taiwan. The AI model's predictions will be compared with the actual one-year mortality outcomes documented in the patients' medical records. The primary objective is to determine whether the AI model can accurately and consistently stratify patients according to their risk of cardiac-related mortality (e.g., heart failure, arrhythmia, and myocardial infarction), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) greater than 0.80. The software is intended to serve as a clinical decision-support tool for long-term risk stratification in non-acute clinical settings, thereby assisting physicians in clinical decision-making and long-term patient management.

NCT Number	NCT07659262
Lead Sponsor	National Defense Medical Center, Taiwan Collaborators: Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Taipei Medical University WanFang Hospital
Conditions	Electrocardiogram, Mortality Risk Prediction
Enrollment	461,982 participants
Start Date	2025-04-01
Primary Completion	2025-07-21 (estimated)
Study Completion	2025-07-21 (estimated)
Updated on ClinicalTrials.gov	2026-06-24