Clinical Trial

Development of a Dynamic Prediction Model for Crohn's Disease-Related Intestinal Surgery Using Longitudinal Indices of Routine Blood Tests: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Completed
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Summary
This single-center retrospective cohort study aims to develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model that uses longitudinal data from routinely collected blood tests to continuously assess the risk of Crohn's disease (CD)-related intestinal surgery, and to construct a simplified tool for clinical application. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CD and serial routine blood tests available during long-term follow-up will be included. Longitudinal trajectories of laboratory markers will be characterized, and their association with CD-related intestinal surgery will be evaluated. A full-variable dynamic prediction model will be built using dynamic random survival forest methodology, and a parsimonious model incorporating only the core laboratory markers will be developed via Bayesian joint model. The goal is to establish a practical, non-invasive, and dynamic risk assessment framework to support the transition from reactive to proactive long-term management of CD.
Trial Details
NCT Number NCT07644390
Lead Sponsor Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
Conditions Crohn Disease (CD), Dynamic Prediction Model
Enrollment 500 participants
Start Date 2010-01-01
Primary Completion 2019-12-31 (estimated)
Study Completion 2026-01-01 (estimated)
Updated on ClinicalTrials.gov 2026-06-12