External Validation of Ten Prediction Models for 30-day Mortality Following Hip Fracture

This study aims to externally validate ten existing prediction models with a low risk of bias for 30-day mortality following hip fracture. Data will be collected from the Dutch Hip Fracture Audit (DHFA) and supplemented with structured and unstructured data extracted through text mining using CTcue. Approximately 35 clinical variables will be used, including factors consistently associated with short-term mortality. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality within 30 days after hip fracture. Predictive performance will be assessed through discrimination (AUC), explained variance (R²), and calibration analysis. Clinical usefulness will be evaluated using Net Benefit and Decision Curve Analysis. This study seeks to identify models with strong predictive performance and practical applicability to support shared decision-making between clinicians and patients.

NCT Number	NCT06961253
Lead Sponsor	JointResearch
Conditions	Hip Fracture, Hip Fracture Surgeries
Enrollment	3,500 participants
Start Date	2024-06-01
Primary Completion	2025-12-31 (estimated)
Study Completion	2026-06-01 (estimated)
Updated on ClinicalTrials.gov	2025-11-17