Improving Disease Prevention Strategies by Integrating Socio-spatial Characterization of Human Mobility

In contrast to the trend expected based on existing prediction models, dengue incidence was historically low during the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020-2021 in most dengue endemic countries. This highlights that current transmission models do not correctly take human mobility into account. Within a pilot-study in Cienfuegos, South-Central Cuba, we will characterise the epidemiological spread and distribution of dengue outbreaks (2012-2025) in districts repeatedly involved in previous dengue outbreaks as initiating, case-concentrating or transmission sustaining areas. This will be linked with fine-grained mobility data and socio-spatial characterizations of commuting flows and population hubs where people are concentrated during day-time (time when transmission happens). This information, together with entomological and environmental risk-data, will be used to i) improve the accuracy of mathematical dengue models, ii) better understand the transmission process and iii) inform and improve the design of disease control strategies. The project will contribute to much-needed evidence-based guidance for public health actors on improved prevention strategies of epidemics dispersion and where and when to implement control measures.

NCT Number	NCT06599970
Lead Sponsor	Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium Collaborators: Cienfuegos Provincial Ministry of Health, Cuba, University Ghent, Institute Pedro Kouri, Ministry of Public Health (Cuba)
Conditions	Dengue, Arbovirus Infections, Epidemic Disease, Behavior, Health
Enrollment	810 participants
Start Date	2024-06-01
Primary Completion	2026-12-31 (estimated)
Study Completion	2027-06-30 (estimated)
Updated on ClinicalTrials.gov	2026-04-22