System Dynamics Model for Acute Non-contact Lower Extremity Injuries Prediction

Despite the extensive research on prevention and prediction strategies, hamstrings strains injury (HSI) persists at a high rate in team sports and specifically in football. An initial injury increases the risk for re-injury and affects performance, whereas the financial cost for athletes and teams is crucial due to the time needed for appropriate rehabilitation. For that reason, it is critical to formulate better strategies in order to predict and prevent HSI. This study aims to develop a system dynamics (SD) model to evaluate HSI risk. First, a literature review will be carried out on the current approaches and identification of intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors of hamstrings strain injuries. Second, co-creation workshops based on the method of Group Modeling Building (GMB) will be applied to develop the SD for the HSI model. This co-creation process will involve stakeholders such as sports physiotherapists, doctors, and sports scientists. After creating the SD for HSI model, a one-year prospective cohort study will be performed to validate the model with real data and evaluate the ability of the model to predict HSIs. Sports teams will be invited to take part in the validation of the model. Multiple biomechanical parameters and other personal characteristics will be collected. Then, athletes will be monitored for the occurrence of injury and their exposure to injury risk during training and games. The factors' non-linear interaction will be assessed with the statistical method of structural equation modeling and factor analysis. In this way, the factors' interactions extracted for the qualitative phase of the study (group modeling building process) will be quantitatively evaluated. Validating the model with real data will provide a computer simulation platform to test plausible strategies for preventing hamstrings strain injuries prior to implementation and optimize intervention programs.